Sub-Saharan Africa to grow by 4% in 2025, Nigeria at 3.4% – IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2025 upward to 3.4 percent, reflecting an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the earlier 3.0 percent forecast made in April.

This was contained in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report for July 2025.

The global lender also raised Nigeria’s 2026 growth outlook to 3.2 percent, 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous estimate of 2.7 percent.

The global economic forecast for 2025 was likewise revised upward to 3.0 percent, up 0.2 percentage points from April, while the projection for 2026 was increased slightly to 3.1 percent.

For Sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF expects growth to reach 4.0 percent in 2025 and 4.3 percent in 2026, marking a 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point increase respectively from April’s estimates.

“Growth is expected to be relatively stable in 2025 in sub-Saharan Africa at 4.0 per cent, before picking up to 4.3 per cent in 2026,” the IMF stated.

Commenting on the IMF’s revised projections, Tunde Abidoye, Head of Equity Research at FBNQuest Merchant Bank, said the new 3.4 percent forecast aligns with the institution’s own internal estimates based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicators.

“I believe the upward revision likely reflects improved oil production and the strong performance of services.

That said, the range-bound single-digit growth rate forecast still portends cautious optimism, as the growth is still too modest to tackle the poverty problem,” Abidoye said.

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Despite the improved outlook, analysts continue to stress the need for structural reforms and investment in key sectors to stimulate broader economic growth and tackle Nigeria’s persistent poverty and unemployment challenges.